Hillary Clinton’s striking 2025 promise to nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize has resurfaced as a political talking point this spring, even as Trump has become an unexpected betting favorite for the award despite leading a war with Iran that began Feb. 28.
Clinton pledged in August 2025 that she would personally put Trump’s name forward if he successfully brokered peace between Russia and Ukraine. But with those negotiations now frozen and a new conflict consuming the White House’s attention, the former secretary of state has not acted on her vow, and her team has stayed silent.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced on April 30, 2026, that 287 candidates are being considered for this year’s prize — 208 individuals and 79 organizations. The committee won’t publicly identify nominees for another 50 years, but leaders from Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan have all publicly stated they nominated Trump, submissions that would have been required by the Jan. 31, 2026 deadline.
A Crowded and Controversial Field
Speculation about this year’s nominees has produced a global roster of potential winners. Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, is in heavy circulation. Pope Francis, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms volunteer aid network and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees are also being discussed.
Norwegian lawmaker Lars Haltbrekken has revealed he nominated Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski alongside Aaja Chemnitz, a member of the Danish parliament elected from Greenland. “Together they have worked relentlessly to build trust and to secure a peaceful development of the Arctic region over many years,” Haltbrekken said. The pairing is a direct rebuke to Trump’s continued push to acquire Greenland from Denmark.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, who became Secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee in January 2025, declined to confirm whether Trump is among the nominees, citing the 50-year secrecy rule. But he acknowledged the field has shifted dramatically from a year ago.
Bookmakers Bet Big on Trump
Despite the ongoing Iran conflict, U.K. bookmaker William Hill has made Trump the front-runner for the prize. Spokesperson Lee Phelps told reporters that Trump’s status is unique among the field.
“Although the Norwegian Nobel Committee have not confirmed that Donald Trump is among the 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, we make Trump the leading contender to take this year’s award,” Phelps said. He added that Trump is now priced at 3/1 — a 25 percent chance — down from a 55 percent implied probability quoted late last year.
Near Christmas, William Hill had Trump at 4/5, a strikingly bullish position before the bombs started falling. Three months later, those odds shifted from 7/4 to 7/2, reflecting waning confidence after the Iran conflict ignited.
Prediction markets tell a far less rosy story. As of May 1, 2026, Trump sits in third place on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market in the world, running on cryptocurrency, with just a 7 percent chance, trailing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Clinton Factor Looms Large
Clinton’s August 2025 vow — widely viewed at the time as a clever political dare — has now become one of the most-discussed “what ifs” in Washington this spring. Nine months later, with Moscow and Kyiv still locked in a grinding war and the White House’s diplomatic push effectively frozen, her camp has remained conspicuously quiet.
Trump himself has oscillated between dismissiveness and bravado about the prize. Speaking to the Washington Examiner from Miami, Florida on March 12, he told reporters: “I don’t know. I’m not interested in it.” Two weeks later, he flipped, declaring that if he doesn’t get the Nobel, “nobody will ever get it.”
His allies have hammered the same theme. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested the U.S. military should win the Peace Prize every year. And in December 2025, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado made the extraordinary gesture of presenting her own human rights award to Trump, who called it “such a wonderful gesture of mutual respect.”
What Comes Next
Harpviken also expressed grave concern about 2023 laureate Narges Mohammadi, who suffered a heart attack inside an Iranian prison. In a development as of May 11, Iranian authorities transferred Mohammadi to a Tehran hospital and temporarily suspended her sentence on bail — though her family is demanding unconditional release, warning her condition remains critical and that any return to prison could prove fatal.
The committee in Oslo will announce the 2026 winner on October 9, with the ceremony scheduled for December 10. Until then, the speculation machine — fueled by world leaders, prediction markets and Trump’s own oscillating commentary — will only intensify.
Reflecting on his own legacy, Trump has said he wants to be remembered as “a great peacemaker.” Whether the committee in Oslo agrees — and whether Hillary Clinton ever makes good on her startling pledge — may shape the final months of this year’s most unpredictable Nobel race.