A political disaster is unfolding for President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans as voters who powered the 2024 victory abandon the administration over its unauthorized military action in Iran, according to data presented by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten over recent broadcasts.
The Iran conflict has triggered a collapse in Trump’s standing with working-class Americans, the demographic foundation of his movement. Marquette University Law School polling tracked Trump’s net favorability among adults without college degrees plummeting from plus-six points in October 2024 to minus-22 by July, Enten told host John Berman during a Friday segment. “Down we go into the Atlantic Ocean,” he said.
Aggregate data across multiple surveys reveals an even more dramatic reversal. Trump won non-college voters by 13 points in 2024, but his running average now shows him trailing by 19 points with that group—a 32-point swing. Enten said the demographic that built Trump’s presidential campaign is moving away and rejecting MAGA. The analyst argued Trump faces serious trouble because opposition now extends beyond college-educated Americans.
Iran War Drives 24-Point Approval Crash
On Tuesday, August 11, 2026, during an appearance on “News Central,” Enten warned the Iran war is becoming a catastrophe for the GOP. CNN/SSRS polling shows approval of the president’s handling of Iran dropped 24 percentage points over two years among those most likely to vote—what Enten described as “a giant fall.” The decline has erased what was once a major strength for Trump entering the previous election.
The military campaign, initiated without authorization from Congress, coincides with gas prices surging from approximately $3 per gallon to over $4, squeezing family finances when many Americans anticipated economic relief. Trump ran in 2024 pledging to reduce costs and stay out of new conflicts. His former advantage with highly motivated voters has become a severe weakness, Enten said, because they feel he broke core campaign promises.
Congressional races are already feeling the impact. Non-college voters backed a Republican House majority by 13 points following the 2024 election. That same demographic now leans Democratic by one point, a shift Enten said should alarm Republicans facing voters in November.
National Security Advantage Erased
The GOP has lost its traditional edge on defense and foreign policy. Reuters/Ipsos found Republicans leading Democrats by 18 points on handling wars, conflicts and terrorism in January 2025. Democrats now hold a 2-point advantage—a 20-point reversal driven primarily by the Iran war.
Public pessimism about the conflict’s outcome runs deep. Fox News polling shows only 27 percent of all voters expect the United States will secure a favorable deal with Iran, while Republican confidence stands at 41 percent. Enten called the universal numbers below 50 percent the most shocking element, saying Americans cannot identify the war’s purpose or see an exit strategy.
Republicans who believe Trump’s struggles will not affect their own races are mistaken, Enten cautioned. Republicans will fall because Trump falls, he said, calling the two inseparable on this matter.
Administration Defends Record as Strategists Warn
White House spokesperson Kush Desai disputed the economic criticism, telling the Daily Beast that energy prices returned to their previous levels after the administration signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding, and forecasting inflation will decline once Trump forces an Iran resolution. GOP strategist David Winston sounded a more worried tone, cautioning that Democrats could trigger a Blue Wave if they maintain their economic advantage and post double-digit leads among independents.
Even Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize aspirations have suffered. Cash prediction markets had given the president 33 percent odds of winning the 2026 prize under a year ago, but those chances have dropped to just 4 percent. The Iran war has dragged those prospects down, Enten said.
The turnaround is remarkable considering Enten recently documented Trump’s political dominance. In July 2026, the president promoted a segment where the analyst highlighted his primary strength, noting Trump’s endorsement elevated South Carolina Sen. a senator from a 14 percent primary win probability to 80 percent on prediction market Kalshi. The senator, who had never served in elected office before receiving the appointment to succeed her late brother in that position, has moved forward to a Republican primary runoff contest with Rep. Ralph Norman. Enten pointed to Trump’s impressive Senate primary performance since 2022, when his endorsements helped winning candidates claim 95 percent of races without an incumbent.
But primary control has not produced general-election power. With November midterms approaching, the same analyst who once charted Trump’s command over the Republican Party now measures how rapidly that authority is eroding among all voters.