Comedian Bill Maher is convinced Democrats will steamroll the 2026 midterms — and he said so with a laugh. On his “Club Random” podcast on Monday, June 8, 2026, Maher declared that Democrats “cannot help but win” the midterm elections, with comedian Jeff Dunham sitting across from him barely believing it. “Even they can’t blow it,” Maher added.
Despite his confident forecast, Maher cautioned that democratic socialist candidates winning Democratic primaries could still hand Republicans an opening they shouldn’t have. The math favors Democrats. The environment favors Democrats. Maher just doesn’t fully trust Democrats to stay out of their own way.
Trump’s Approval Collapse Drives Maher’s Midterm Forecast
Maher’s forecast centered on President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings. According to Maher, the president has experienced a historic collapse in public support, with even his core voters turning against him due to the Iran conflict. “They did not like the [Iran] war,” he said. Maher acknowledged he initially supported Trump’s decision to eliminate Iran’s supreme leader, but once the anticipated internal uprising in Iran failed to occur, his backing for continued military pressure disappeared. He expressed relief that Trump shifted to naval blockades instead of pursuing a full campaign to destroy the country.
His remarks came a day after Trump told Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst that an agreement with Iran could be finalized within days.
Maher’s Complicated Praise for Trump
What made Maher’s “Club Random” appearance unusual wasn’t the midterm forecast. It was the sustained, if grudging, credit he extended to Trump. He said Trump possesses a knack for identifying problems other politicians avoid — issues regular Americans actually notice. The “insanity festering” on college campuses was one example. Maher insisted no amount of revisionism could make him unsee the cultural shift among college students in recent years. He called Trump correct about illegal immigration representing a genuine crisis.
But then he pivoted. Trump, Maher contended, took a legitimate problem and botched the response by directing ICE enforcement at American cities in ways Maher described as “unconstitutional and way too cruel.” The immigration issue didn’t fail because Trump misidentified it, Maher argued. It failed because the execution was excessive, reckless, and politically self-destructive.
Vance on “Real Time” — a Historic First
The “Club Random” episode wasn’t Maher’s only recent prominent political moment. Vice President JD Vance sat down with Maher on “Real Time” on June 26, becoming the first sitting vice president to appear on the HBO program. Vance arrived to promote his new book “Communion,” about his faith — but the conversation quickly veered elsewhere.
The day before the “Real Time” taping, Vance had visited the Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in California, where he defended former President Richard Nixon’s legacy and minimized the Watergate scandal. Vance told attendees, “If Watergate happened tomorrow, it would be like a 12-hour news story.” The remark stands out coming from someone who, before joining Trump’s ticket, compared President Trump to Hitler.
On “Real Time,” Maher challenged Vance aggressively on Iran negotiations, disputing Vance’s assertion that Iran’s nuclear program had been effectively destroyed. Vance cited Trump, who said at the G7 that oil had dropped to $73 a barrel, as evidence the talks were succeeding, and claimed Iran’s uranium enrichment capability was eliminated. Maher remained skeptical. He wanted to know how anyone could verify destruction without inspectors gaining access to collect physical evidence. Vance repeated the word “functionally” without offering specifics.
Maher also urged Vance to concede the Trump administration’s ICE operations went too far. He didn’t demand an apology — just an acknowledgment. Vance refused, responding that law enforcement operations of that magnitude inevitably produce difficult moments and no clean approach existed.
A 2028 Warning for Democrats
The sharpest moment of the “Real Time” interview may have been what Maher revealed about his own political future — and his frustration with his party. He told Vance that in 2028, the Republican nominee would likely be either Vance or Marco Rubio, and that his vote wasn’t guaranteed for Democrats.
Maher has been vocal about the Democratic Party’s problems for some time. He has attacked what he views as the party’s fixation on Israel, its tolerance of antisemitism in activist circles, its skepticism toward capitalism, and its positions on incarceration. If the party continues moving in that direction, he said, his 2028 vote is genuinely in play.