NewsNation correspondent at large Geraldo Rivera has dramatically shifted his stance on President Donald Trump’s Iran conflict, now cautioning that Republicans face a potential electoral bloodbath in the 2026 midterms unless the war ends quickly and gas prices drop.
The veteran broadcaster’s dire forecast comes as fresh Ipsos polling shows a majority of Americans—51%—believe military action in Iran has not been worth the costs, compared to just 24% who think it has. When survey respondents were asked to complete the statement “Considering the cost and benefits, the Iran War has been…,” most answered with “not worth U.S. military action.”
Rivera, once a Trump supporter, delivered his stark assessment April 15 on “The Daily Take” with host Connell McShane. “I think if the war persists, and if the price of gas stays where it is or goes higher, there will be a stampede in the midterm elections,” he said. “I think the cost politically to the president will be profound. I think Republicans will be reeling from a revolution.”
The comments represent a sharp departure from Rivera’s position just eight days prior. On April 7, he appeared on “TMZ Live” to discuss Trump’s Iran strategy with considerably more optimism, calling Trump’s threat to end Iran’s civilization “exaggerated” while expressing confidence that the Department of War would never authorize strikes on civilian targets. Rivera also dismissed concerns about potential nuclear weapon deployment during that appearance.
His revised outlook reflects the mounting domestic fallout from Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent gas prices soaring and left American consumers fuming. McShane acknowledged that while the blockade might force Iran to accept presidential terms through economic pressure, American patience appears to be wearing thin.
Rivera pointed to a core campaign pledge that now haunts the administration. Trump won the election in part by pledging “no more forever wars” to his MAGA base—a commitment now at odds with the current situation in Iran. For Rivera, this broken promise represents a fundamental breach of trust with Trump’s most loyal supporters.
The political damage is already measurable. A CNN survey found that the share of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump’s job performance dropped from 52% in January to 43% by April, while his economic approval rating among Republicans fell 14 points over the same period. Among independents, crucial swing voters in competitive districts, the picture is even bleaker.
The ongoing U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran has included Trump setting an 8 p.m. ceasefire deadline that featured threats to bomb power plants and other critical infrastructure. While a two-week ceasefire was ultimately announced, the economic damage from disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to ripple through global markets.
Rivera’s warning carries added significance given his personal connection to Trump—the two appeared together on “Celebrity Apprentice”—and his deep familiarity with the MAGA base’s expectations. His suggestion that Republicans could face a “revolution” at the ballot box represents one of the most pessimistic forecasts yet from someone within Trump’s extended political orbit.
Events have only validated Rivera’s concerns since his April 15 appearance. As the ceasefire’s April 21 expiration approaches, the situation has grown more urgent. On April 18, Iran reversed course and re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, demanding the U.S. lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports before allowing commercial shipping to resume. Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, said Iran had gotten “a little cute” and warned that if no deal is reached before the ceasefire expires, “we’ll have to start dropping bombs again.” With the Strait once again shuttered, gas prices showing no sign of relief, and peace talks stalled, the 2026 midterms loom as a potential referendum on Trump’s Iran policy and its devastating domestic economic consequences.